Should the Giants sign Vogelsong to a long-term deal?
He’s arbitration-eligible and the club doesn’t have to worry about any other teams signing him right now, so I’m curious just how “long-term” we’re talking about here.
Vogey had a fantastic (and surprising) 2011 season, going 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA, 1.252 WHIP, 7.0 SO/9 rate, and 3.1 BB/9 rate.
His first half numbers (6-1, 2.17, 1.193) were definitely better than his second half numbers (7-6, 3.26, 1.313). Was this a case of hitters finally figuring him out (he hadn’t been in the league since 2006, remember) or did Vogelsong simply wear down as the season went on?
Urban suggests the Giants could get the 34-year old right-hander for as little as $8 million over two years (his 2012 arbitration salary is expected to be in the $2-$3 million range). The former CSN insider advocates that the Giants secure a multi-year contract with the All-Star.
The question, of course, is, “Is Vogelsong a one-hit wonder?”
His track record makes me scratch my head. Vogey sure looked like the real deal last season, but what about 2000-2006, when he went 10-22 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.590 WHIP and never finished with an ERA better than 4.43? His career SO/9 rate is only 6.5 while his career walk rate is 3.9 BB/9 IP. Last year looks like an anomaly.
Don’t get me wrong. I definitely want to see Vogelsong in a Giants uniform next season and I think he should get a nice raise through the arb process.
If Brian Sabean wants to secure him longer than a year, I suppose a two-year contract (similar to what the Giants did with Aubrey Huff after the 2010 season) is not that risky. But anything longer than that scares me. Look how pissy people got with Huff this past season after he regressed.
I know many Giants fans are prone to becoming enamored with feel-good stories like the ones we’ve seen in recent years from Vogelsong, Huff, and Andres Torres. And they’re just as quick to fall out of love.
Why sign Vogelsong to a long-term deal now? What if he reverts back to the Vogelsong of old? Is it worth the risk?